The September edition of our Pace Navigator is now live! We invite you to check out the latest metrics below. And, in case you missed our announcement last month, here’s a little background on the Pace Navigator… Each month, Knowland collects a significant amount of data on forward-looking group demand across 60+ major North American markets. This data is provided by CVBs that participate in Knowland’s TAP Report. It is unique in providing group room nights booking pace information across the entire multi-year future booking window, representing over 30 million annual room nights and nearly 50% of the group business conducted by hotels across these markets.
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On the Books Pace & New Bookings Velocity,
as of July 31, 2018:
| On the Books (OTB) Pace: +4.2% |
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This metric measures the change in definite room nights on the books, as of July 31, 2018, compared to what was on the books the same time last year (STLY), or July 31, 2017. Holding steady since last month, our data indicates 4.2% more definite rooms are on the books, compared to this time in 2017. The graph above shows the OTB Pace change versus same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon.
| New Bookings Velocity: +1.5% |
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This metric measures the change in room nights from newly signed bookings over the last three months, in this case May – July, compared to room nights booked over the same time last year (STLY). Across all future dates, the new bookings velocity is up 1.5% compared to the same 3-month window in 2017. The graph above shows the new bookings velocity change versus same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon. For example, the +14% new bookings velocity for 2019 compares the total room nights from May – July 2018 new bookings for 2019 to the total room nights from May – July 2017 new bookings for 2018.
Our Take on This Month’s Data:
Overall group demand across North America continues to be in a strong position, with the number of room nights on the books for all future dates (2018 to 2024 and beyond) up 4.2% versus the same time last year. This is unchanged from last month’s report. Additionally, the velocity of room nights coming onto the books from new bookings over the last three months is slightly up (+1.5%) compared to the same period last year. This contrasts to last month, when we reported new bookings velocity down slightly. These measures combined indicate that demand conditions looking into the future remain strong.
2019 and 2020 also continue to be ahead in OTB pace, and new bookings are coming in more rapidly than previous years. 2022 is also crushing it in terms of OTB pace, showing a 10.2% upswing. Meanwhile, 2021 is flat in pace, which is something sales teams will want to monitor in the coming months, especially since new bookings velocity for 2021 is down versus same time last year.
Although the OTB pace is positive for 2022 and beyond, new bookings velocity is down in each of those years. 2022 in particular saw a significant slow down in new bookings over the past three months, which has eroded the OTB pace position for that year from +11.1% last month to +10.3% this month. So while the early booking strength for those years has been strong, recent bookings pace is not sustaining that position.
What do you think? We’d love to hear your thoughts!
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Enjoy!
Tim Hart, CEO of Knowland
