Our monthly analysis of group demand pace and booking trends is here! The October edition of our Pace Navigator shows overall group demand across North America is maintaining a strong position, with little to fear at this spooky time of year. In fact, the number of room nights on the books for all future dates, with the exception of 2023, continues to be up versus the same time last year with increasing momentum compared to the data we reported last month. 2022 is still crushing OTB pace, now showing an 11.2% upswing. Read on for the full results!
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On the Books Pace & New Bookings Velocity,
as of August 31, 2018:
| On the Books (OTB) Pace: +4.6% |
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This metric measures the change in definite room nights on the books, as of August 31, 2018, compared to what was on the books the same time last year (STLY), or August 31, 2017. Holding steady since last month, our data indicates 4.6% more definite rooms are on the books, compared to this time in 2017. The graph above shows the OTB Pace change versus same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon.
| New Bookings Velocity: +3.3% |
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This metric measures the change in room nights from newly signed bookings over the last three months, in this case June – August, compared to room nights booked over the same time last year (STLY). Across all future dates, the new bookings velocity is up 3.3% compared to the same 3-month window in 2017. The graph above shows the new bookings velocity change versus same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon. For example, the +19% new bookings velocity for 2019 compares the total room nights from June – August 2018 new bookings for 2019 to the total room nights from June – August 2017 new bookings for 2018.
Our Take on This Month’s Data:
Overall group demand across North America is maintaining a strong position. The number of room nights on the books for all future dates, with the exception of 2023, continues to be up versus the same time last year with increasing momentum compared to the data we reported last month. 2022 is still crushing OTB pace, now showing an 11.2% upswing.
Additionally, the velocity of room nights coming onto the books from new bookings over the last three months is up compared to the same period last year in all years except 2021 and 2024, with positions in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023 continuing to strengthen compared to last month’s data. These combined measures indicate that demand conditions remain very strong looking into the future.
Meanwhile, 2021 has shifted from being flat in OTB pace to being behind; savvy sales teams will want to monitor these trends in the coming months, especially since new bookings velocity for 2021 is now down more than 30% compared to the same time last year.
OTB pace is positive for 2022 and 2023, with new bookings velocity accelerating in those years since last month. 2023 saw a significant upswing in velocity, now tracking at 46% increase versus last month’s sluggish downward numbers. We are curious to see how new hotel development impacts these numbers moving forward.
About the Pace Navigator:
Each month, Knowland collects a significant amount of data on forward-looking group demand across 60+ major North American markets. This data is provided by Convention and Visitor Bureaus (CVBs) that participate in Knowland’s TAP Report. It is unique in providing group room nights booking pace information across the entire multi-year future booking window. This data represents over 30 million annual room nights, and represents nearly 50% of the group business conducted by hotels across these markets.
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